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A la lecture de l’accord conclu lors de la COP21, le directeur de Greenpeace International, Kumi Naidoo, a estimé que « le texte place clairement l’industrie des énergies fossiles du mauvais côté de l’Histoire ». Avec l’objectif de contenir le réchauffement climatique à 1,5°C par rapport à l’ère industrielle, la communauté internationale s’oblige à renoncer à l’exploitation des hydrocarbures. Reste à savoir à quel rythme.

Atténuer le réchauffement climatique avec une énergie décarbonée

Dans un rapport du Sénat de 2002 sur l’ampleur du réchauffement climatique, les parlementaires expliquaient déjà que « l’intensification rapide de l’effet de serre (…) pourrait soulever de très grandes difficultés pour certains écosystèmes et rendre la vie sur la Terre plus difficile ». Pour préserver les conditions nécessaires à la vie sur Terre, la Caisse des Dépôts et de Consignation affirmait en 2010 que deux types de mesures devaient être adoptées : les mesures d’atténuation et celles d’adaptation.

Lors de la conférence de Paris, différentes initiatives ont été proposées afin d’atténuer le phénomène, telles que l’instauration d’un prix du carbone à l’échelle de la planète ou encore la fin des subventions aux énergies fossiles. Cela sera-t-il pour autant suffisant ? La question se pose, alors que Thomas Spencer, de l’Institut du développement durable et des relations internationales, réclame « des changements structurels et radicaux, notamment pour passer vers une énergie “décarbonée” ».

La sortie des énergies fossiles sera-t-elle assez rapide ?

Désormais, on comprend pourquoi le responsable de Greenpreace affirme que l’industrie des énergies fossiles se trouve du « mauvais côté de l’Histoire ». Même l’ambassadeur du climat de François Hollande, Nicolas Hulot, se félicite du fait que « le glas des énergies fossiles a été sonné » lors de la COP21. Cependant, les deux hommes restent d’un optimisme prudent en se demandant : « est-ce qu’on va aller assez vite par rapport à des phénomènes qui, eux, ne nous attendent pas » ?

Dans le volet « atténuation » de son 5ème rapport, le groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) considère que la planète dispose d’un « budget carbone » limité, une notion utilisée de plus en plus dans la science climatique. Ainsi, selon la la Convention-Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques (CCNUCC), entre 1850 et 2015, l’homme a émis 2 000 milliards de tonnes de gaz à effet de serre, alors qu’il resterait un « budget carbone » de 1 000 milliards de tonnes avant de d’atteindre un réchauffement climatique de 2°C…

Le paysage énergétique de demain se dessine aujourd’hui

Si les pays développés ont entamé une course contre la montre depuis plusieurs années, les pays émergents devront également composer avec la contrainte environnementale. Pour les y aider, le Fonds Vert est financé à hauteur de 100 milliards d’euros – alors que les Amis de la Terre estiment le coût de la transition énergétique des pays du sud à 147 milliards. De plus, cet outil servira à la fois à engager une transition énergétique pour atténuer le changement climatique et à « réduire la vulnérabilité des systèmes naturels et socio-économiques » pour s’adapter aux effets qui se font déjà sentir.

Parallèlement le redéploiement des subventions aux énergies fossiles pourrait néanmoins permettre d’atteindre les objectifs de la lutte contre le changement climatique. Estimées à 498 milliards de dollars par l’Agence Internationale de l’Energie, elles représentent environ le double des investissements réalisés dans les énergies propres en 2014, soit 270 milliards de dollars selon le programme des Nations Unies pour l’Environnement.